We all play bad golf rounds. Some of us (like me) have big swings in score between good and bad golf rounds. And those bad rounds generally lead to more bad rounds. In the same way that good rounds lead to more good rounds.
After having looked at lots of data I have found that there are 3 kinds of player, and based on data I can tell you how to win more money on bets. And which players you should not bet against.
- Unpredictable winner - No periods (Do not bet against them)
- Mid Predictable winner – Short periods - Be smart on your bets.
- Predictable winner – Long periods – Easy to beat. Choose when/how much to bet
Kinds of Players
To recognize kinds of players use TheGrint Golf Handicap Tracker, go into the Trends section and filter the graphs by “user”. Then classify each of the friends you generally play by the following kinds/categories:
1) The Unpredictable winner refers to those players who don’t go on periods of good rounds or periods of bad round. Those players typically have one good round, then a bad one, then 2 good ones, then one bad, etc… See the graph below to recognize how they will look on the trends section:
Betting against the Unpredictable player do not provide you with any advantage when applying the strategy we present in this post.
2) The “Mid Predictable winner” refers to the player that goes through short periods (3-4 rounds) of good rounds, and bad rounds. See the graph below to recognize how they will look on the trends section:
It is a good idea to bet against these players. Try to identify when they are entering into slump periods and make sure you bet. Or at least make sure you bet a bit more money than usual on those.
3) The “Predictable winner” refers to the player that goes through long periods (>5 rounds) of good rounds, and bad rounds. See the graph below to recognize how they will look on the trends section:
Make sure you bet against these guys when they are 2-3 rounds into a slump. No risk here. Then make sure you don’t bet much on good periods.
Why should I listen to this?
The Handicap system takes into account the best 10 scores of the last 20. That means that if a player goes through long periods of good rounds or bad rounds, then the handicap is not a good representation of the player’s potential ability through those periods. Therefore, the handicap becomes a disadvantage when going through bad periods, and an advantage when going through good periods.
How should I bet then?
If you are like most golfers, you typically play with your same people week in and week out. That means that you can’t really select who to play this week and who not to play each week. But, what you can do is insist on higher bets when your chances are higher, and lower bets when your chances are lower. So the idea is not to win all the time, but to win more when you win and to lose less when you lose.
You should not expect to win every time you increase your bets. But you can expect to win most of the times (75%). The same way you should not expect to lose every time you lower your bets.
Put yourself into the equation
Remember that you are, like everyone else, a kind of player. So determine which kind of player you are and identify when you are entering your periods of bad or good rounds. Then take that into account when you decide how much you are going to bet.
Enjoy your Golf!
Before I get into this discussion. It is